November 25, 2024–On Nov. 20, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) recommended Google be mandated to sell Chrome as part of an ongoing antitrust case that could upturn digital marketing. It’s a change intended to increase competition, and marketing experts think it will.
Google currently holds 26.7% of US digital ad spend share and 52.4% of US search spend share,
per our November 2024 forecast. The company has faced some competition due to cookie loss, the rise of retail media search advertising, and generative AI search disruption. But Google remains by far the biggest player in search advertising, and disrupting that ecosystem would change the way advertisers collect data and spend money.
But while untethering Google and Chrome could lead to innovation across the ad industry, it would also introduce more fragmentation for marketers to navigate,
according to Todd Parsons, chief product officer at commerce media platform Criteo.
“This shift could lead to significant challenges, including reduced data-collection capabilities, a market share shake-up in search, and the loss of single sign-on functionality,” said Luca Bozzo, director of programmatic operations and partnerships at video technology platform JWP Connatix.
A Chrome decoupling won’t shatter Google completely, and many things would stay the same for advertisers.
So long as Google retains ownership of its ad server Google Ad Manager (GAM), it will retain control of the ad auction for much of the open internet, Bozzo said. And Google will leverage the platforms it still owns to collect digital signals, said Equativ’s Parry, including Gmail, GooglePay, YouTube, Google IoT hardware, and more.